For more than two years I have been trying to find reliable answers to various questions about the actions and decisions of our government. I have tried to get answers from my MP without success. I am not sure if that is because he cannot or will not respond. Therefore I have had done my own research using academic sources and reputable parts of the media. In particular I have researched the following question:
What is the probable damage to the UK economy by a combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and a No deal Brexit?
The results of my research are as follows.
- The government has produced no public estimates for future economic output this year and the next planned Budget has been cancelled. The government forecast in 2018 that the GDP would fall by 7.6% after a no deal Brexit (or £2,400 per person). Perhaps the lack of an update is because the government has seen a draft update and is frightened of the reaction if it publishes an even greater loss.
- The Bank of England has forecast that Covid-19 will reduce the GDP by 1.7% (or £600 per person) up to 2022. The likely effects of a no deal Brexit as predicted and published by reliable sources can be summarised as follows:
- The economic cost of a no-deal Brexit could be several times as bad as the impact of Covid-19 and it would last for many years. It could significantly reduce the UK economic output for more than 20 years. The long term damages are because of delays at ports, restrictions on travel and tourism, the loss of clients and skilled staff, and curbs on immigration as well as the imposition of tariffs.
- The combined long term effect on GDP is likely to be nearly 10% (ie. 8% for a no deal Brexit and 1.7% for Covid-19). That would result in millions of people being unemployed
and a massive drop in living standards especially for the poorer members of society The effect may be even worse if the government breaks international law by implementing certain items in the recent Internal Market Bill. The Prime Minister appears to have signed the EU Withdrawal Agreement without understanding the implications and now wishes to change the
agreement illegally. Perhaps he lacked competent advisers? More likely he was desperate to keep his promise to “Get Brexit done” regardless of the effect on the UK s reputation and citizens in Northern Ireland Now he is desperately trying to avoid upsetting Tory Brexiteers, the Republic of Ireland and the legislators in the USA. As a result, he is destroying the international reputation of the UK giving a terrible example to law abiding people in the U K and jeopardising peace in Northern Ireland.
- The economic damage could have been limited, and pandemic management improved if the Brexit transition period had been extended so that more resources could have been used to handle the pandemic.
- Source Information from:
-London School of Economics